It took a little longer than expected to get out into the garage again but I think I know why it stopped shifting...
1st - it shifts into all the gears at the drum with the rear wheel spinning. I do have to spin the other shaft a bit up around 3rd or 4th gear otherwise it'll get stuck in the middle, but I assume this is normal???
2 - I reinstalled the shift lever and guide and I noticed it still wouldn't spin the drum, so I removed again and did a real close inspection of that set of pieces and found that the shift plate has a wallered out hole in it (see below), the shift pawls have a very slight twist in them and there are some light nicks on the shift lever.
View attachment 31612
Looks like a decent one to me.